| CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25) Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (53%), 2 (57%), 3 (58%), 4 (60%), 5 (61%), 6 (62%), 7 (65%), 8 (72%), 9 (73%), 10 (74%), 11 (75%), 12 (77%), 13 (80%), 14 (81%), 15 (84%), 16 (86%), 17 (87%), 18 (87%), 19 (88%), 20 (88%), 21 (90%), 22 (92%), 23 (93%), 24 (94%), 25 (95%), 26 (95%), 27 (96%), 28 (96%), 29 (97%), 30 (97%), 31 (97%), 32 (98%), 33 (98%), 34 (98%), 35 (98%), 36 and up (99%) Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores. They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated. 6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart. Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included. Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections. | ||||||||||||||
| RANK | SCHOOL | SECTION | LEAGUE | CHANCE | RECORD | PROJECTED RECORD | RATING | HIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENT | REMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning) | |||||
| 1 | Hughson (CA) | Sac-Joaquin | Trans Valley | 100% | 9-0 | 9-0 | 30 | none | none | |||||
| 2 | Rodriguez (Fairfield, CA) | Sac-Joaquin | Monticello Empire | 100% | 10-0 | 10-0 | 32 | none | none | |||||
| 3 | Oak Hills (Hesperia, CA) | Southern | Mojave River | 99% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 56.9 | Burroughs (Ridgecrest, CA) (-16.1) | Burroughs (Ridgecrest, CA) (99%) | |||||
| 4 | Northview (Covina, CA) | Southern | Valle Vista | 99% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 42.5 | Baldwin Park (CA) (4.4) | Baldwin Park (CA) (99%) | |||||
| 5 | Twelve Bridges (Lincoln, CA) | Sac-Joaquin | Foothill Valley | 99% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 53.2 | Del Campo (Fair Oaks, CA) (12.4) | Del Campo (Fair Oaks, CA) (99%) | |||||
| 6 | Flintridge Prep (La Canada, CA) | Southern | 8-Man Freelance (8 Man) | 99% | 6-0 | 7-0 | 55.5 | Chadwick (Palos Verdes Peninsula, CA) (16.5) | Chadwick (Palos Verdes Peninsula, CA) (99%) | |||||
| 7 | Imperial (CA) | San Diego | Imperial Valley | 99% | 8-0 | 9-0 | 22.7 | Southwest (El Centro, CA) (-36.2) | Southwest (El Centro, CA) (99%) | |||||
| 8 | Laton (CA) | Central | East Sierra (8 Man) | 99% | 6-0 | 7-0 | 17.1 | Kings Christian (Lemoore, CA) (-47.4) | Kings Christian (Lemoore, CA) (99%) | |||||
| 9 | Bradshaw Christian (Sacramento, CA) | Sac-Joaquin | Sierra Valley | 99% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 38.6 | Rosemont (Sacramento, CA) (-16.6) | Rosemont (Sacramento, CA) (99%) | |||||
| 10 | California School for the Deaf (Riverside, CA) | Southern | 8-Man Freelance (8 Man) | 99% | 8-0 | 9-0 | 44.3 | Entrepreneur (Highland, CA) (-43.1) | Entrepreneur (Highland, CA) (99%) | |||||
| 11 | Sonoma Valley (Sonoma, CA) | North Coast | Redwood Empire - Mountain | 98% | 7-0 | 9-0 | 22 | Terra Linda (San Rafael, CA) (-23.8) | Terra Linda (San Rafael, CA) (99%), Healdsburg (CA) (99%) | |||||
| 12 | Cate (Carpinteria, CA) | Southern | Tri-Valley (8 Man) | 98% | 6-0 | 8-0 | 45.2 | Thacher (Ojai, CA) (1.6) | Villanova Prep (Ojai, CA) (99%), Thacher (Ojai, CA) (99%) | |||||
| 13 | Stuart Hall (San Francisco, CA) | North Coast | North Central II (8 Man) | 98% | 7-0 | 9-0 | 53.1 | South Fork (Miranda, CA) (8.7) | Swett [John] (Crockett, CA) (99%), South Fork (Miranda, CA) (99%) | |||||
| 14 | Hanford (CA) | Central | West Yosemite | 98% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 55 | Lemoore (CA) (22.8) | Lemoore (CA) (98%) | |||||
| 15 | Newbury Park (CA) | Southern | Conejo Coast | 98% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 70.7 | Rio Mesa (Oxnard, CA) (37.5) | Rio Mesa (Oxnard, CA) (98%) | |||||
| 16 | De La Salle (Concord, CA) | North Coast | East Bay - Mountain | 97% | 8-0 | 10-0 | 78.2 | California (San Ramon, CA) (44.7) | California (San Ramon, CA) (98%), Clayton Valley (Concord, CA) (99%) | |||||
| 17 | Inglewood (CA) | Southern | Bay | 97% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 70.6 | Culver City (CA) (38.9) | Culver City (CA) (97%) | |||||
| 18 | Trinity Classical Academy (Valencia, CA) | Southern | Cottonwood | 97% | 9-0 | 10-0 | -6.1 | Riverside Prep (Oro Grande, CA) (-39.8) | Riverside Prep (Oro Grande, CA) (97%) | |||||
| 19 | McLane (Fresno, CA) | Central | North Yosemite | 97% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 18 | Hoover [Herbert] (Fresno, CA) (-10.8) | Hoover [Herbert] (Fresno, CA) (97%) | |||||
| 20 | Holtville (CA) | San Diego | Desert | 95% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 20.1 | Calipatria (CA) (-4.7) | Calipatria (CA) (95%) | |||||
| 21 | Mission Viejo (CA) | Southern | Alpha | 95% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 88.3 | Los Alamitos (CA) (63.3) | Los Alamitos (CA) (95%) | |||||
| 22 | Sherman Oaks CES (Reseda, CA) | Los Angeles | Valley (8 Man) | 95% | 7-0 | 8-0 | -6.6 | East Valley (North Hollywood, CA) (-32.5) | East Valley (North Hollywood, CA) (95%) | |||||
| 23 | North Hollywood (CA) | Los Angeles | East Valley | 93% | 9-0 | 10-0 | -0.8 | Verdugo Hills (Tujunga, CA) (-22.4) | Verdugo Hills (Tujunga, CA) (93%) | |||||
| 24 | Carmel (CA) | Central Coast | Pacific Coast - Mission South | 89% | 7-0 | 10-0 | 25.8 | North Salinas (Salinas, CA) (4.7) | North Salinas (Salinas, CA) (92%), Greenfield (CA) (99%), Pacific Grove (CA) (97%) | |||||
| 25 | La Costa Canyon (Carlsbad, CA) | San Diego | Avocado | 88% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 58.2 | Torrey Pines (San Diego, CA) (37.8) | Torrey Pines (San Diego, CA) (88%) | |||||
| 26 | Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA) | Southern | Trinity | 88% | 8-0 | 9-0 | 110.2 | Lutheran (Orange, CA) (91.2) | Lutheran (Orange, CA) (88%) | |||||
| 27 | Winters (CA) | Northern | Sacramento Valley | 87% | 7-0 | 9-0 | 21 | Pierce (Arbuckle, CA) (-0.4) | Paradise (CA) (99%), Pierce (Arbuckle, CA) (88%) | |||||
| 28 | Faith Baptist (Canoga Park, CA) | Southern | Heritage (8 Man) | 87% | 7-0 | 8-0 | 32 | Avalon (CA) (15.2) | Avalon (CA) (87%) | |||||
| 29 | Bonita (La Verne, CA) | Southern | Sierra | 87% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 48 | Colony (Ontario, CA) (30) | Colony (Ontario, CA) (87%) | |||||
| 30 | Brea Olinda (Brea, CA) | Southern | Kappa | 84% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 31.6 | Esperanza (Anaheim, CA) (17.8) | Esperanza (Anaheim, CA) (84%) | |||||
| 31 | Hayfork (CA) | Northern | California - Division I (8 Man) | 84% | 7-0 | 8-0 | 32.3 | Tulelake (CA) (18.8) | Tulelake (CA) (84%) | |||||
| 32 | La Puente (CA) | Southern | Miramonte | 84% | 8-0 | 9-0 | -16.1 | Duarte (CA) (-29.9) | Duarte (CA) (84%) | |||||
| 33 | Arcata (CA) | North Coast | Humboldt-Del Norte - Little 4 | 82% | 7-0 | 9-0 | 17.4 | Ferndale (CA) (4.4) | Hoopa Valley (Hoopa, CA) (99%), Ferndale (CA) (83%) | |||||
| 34 | Willow Glen (San Jose, CA) | Central Coast | Santa Teresa - Valley | 82% | 7-0 | 9-0 | 15.7 | Leland (San Jose, CA) (2.3) | Westmont (Campbell, CA) (97%), Leland (San Jose, CA) (85%) | |||||
| 35 | Hemet (CA) | Southern | Sunbelt | 79% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 24.6 | Rancho Christian (Temecula, CA) (14.2) | Rancho Christian (Temecula, CA) (79%) | |||||
| 36 | Los Amigos (Fountain Valley, CA) | Southern | Sigma | 76% | 8-0 | 9-0 | 4.3 | Calvary Chapel (Santa Ana, CA) (-7.3) | Calvary Chapel (Santa Ana, CA) (76%) | |||||
| 37 | Cardinal Newman (Santa Rosa, CA) | North Coast | Redwood Empire - Adobe | 73% | 8-0 | 10-0 | 61.4 | Marin Catholic (Kentfield, CA) (48.1) | Marin Catholic (Kentfield, CA) (74%), Vintage (Napa, CA) (99%) | |||||
| 38 | Coalinga (CA) | Central | West Sierra | 73% | 8-0 | 9-0 | 20.7 | Dos Palos (CA) (12.6) | Dos Palos (CA) (73%) | |||||
| 39 | Clovis East (Clovis, CA) | Central | Tri-River | 68% | 9-0 | 10-0 | 72.4 | Clovis North (Fresno, CA) (64.9) | Clovis North (Fresno, CA) (68%) | |||||
| 40 | San Lorenzo Valley (Felton, CA) | Central Coast | Pacific Coast - Santa Lucia | 65% | 7-0 | 10-0 | -0.6 | Stevenson [Robert Louis] (Pebble Beach, CA) (-6.8) | Santa Cruz (CA) (99%), Stevenson [Robert Louis] (Pebble Beach, CA) (72%), Pajaro Valley (Watsonville, CA) (91%) | |||||
| 41 | Ramona (Riverside, CA) | Southern | River Valley | 62% | 8-0 | 9-0 | 18.5 | Patriot (Jurupa Valley, CA) (11.9) | Patriot (Jurupa Valley, CA) (62%) | |||||
| 42 | Cornerstone Christian (Antioch, CA) | North Coast | North Central III (8 Man) | 54% | 7-0 | 9-0 | -2.2 | California School for the Deaf (Fremont, CA) (-5.6) | Round Valley (Covelo, CA) (95%), California School for the Deaf (Fremont, CA) (57%) | |||||
| 43 | Gunn [Henry M.] (Palo Alto, CA) | Central Coast | Peninsula - Lake | 45% | 8-0 | 9-1 | -21.6 | Jefferson (Daly City, CA) (-23.4) | Saratoga (CA) (75%), Jefferson (Daly City, CA) (59%) | |||||
| 44 | Beckman [Arnold O.] (Irvine, CA) | Southern | Lambda | 44% | 9-0 | 9-1 | 19.5 | Marina (Huntington Beach, CA) (21.2) | Marina (Huntington Beach, CA) (44%) | |||||
| 45 | Scripps Ranch (San Diego, CA) | San Diego | Eastern | 42% | 8-0 | 8-1 | 33 | Mount Miguel (Spring Valley, CA) (37.1) | Mount Miguel (Spring Valley, CA) (42%) | |||||
| 46 | American Canyon (CA) | North Coast | Redwood Empire - Valley | 33% | 7-0 | 8-1 | 23.8 | Casa Grande (Petaluma, CA) (30.6) | Casa Grande (Petaluma, CA) (38%), Redwood (Larkspur, CA) (86%) | |||||