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RUNNING-THE-TABLE



CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores.  They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.  Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANKSCHOOLSECTIONLEAGUECHANCERECORDPROJECTED RECORDRATINGHIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENTREMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1Novato (CA)North CoastMarin County100%13-013-029.8nonenone
2Bishop's (La Jolla, CA)San DiegoCoastal100%12-012-024.2nonenone
3Poway (CA)San DiegoPalomar100%12-012-042.4nonenone
4South Bay Lutheran (Inglewood, CA)SouthernPacific Mountain (8 Man)100%11-011-059.8nonenone
5De La Salle (Concord, CA)North CoastBay Valley100%12-012-058nonenone
6Foothill (Palo Cedro, CA)NorthernEastern100%12-012-039.6nonenone
7La Habra (CA)SouthernFreeway100%13-013-032.4nonenone
8Sutter (CA)NorthernButte View100%12-012-024.3nonenone
9St. Margaret's (San Juan Capistrano, CA)SouthernAcademy100%14-014-025.1nonenone
10Citrus Hill (Perris, CA)SouthernMountain Pass100%14-014-023.6nonenone
11Hamilton (Hamilton City, CA)NorthernMid-Valley100%13-013-03.5nonenone
12Fall River (McArthur, CA)NorthernShasta Cascade100%11-011-0-3.2nonenone