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RUNNING-THE-TABLE



CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores.  They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart.  Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included.  Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANKSCHOOLSECTIONLEAGUECHANCERECORDPROJECTED RECORDRATINGHIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENTREMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1Glendora (CA)SouthernCitrus 4100%10-010-048.1nonenone
2Thacher (Ojai, CA)SouthernMt. Pinos (8 Man)100%7-07-036.6nonenone
3Antelope (CA)Sac-JoaquinCapital Valley100%9-09-036nonenone
4Woodland Christian (Woodland, CA)Sac-JoaquinSacramento Metro100%8-08-0-8.1nonenone
5Dos Palos (CA)CentralWest Sierra100%10-010-010.8nonenone
6Mission Oak (Tulare, CA)CentralEast Yosemite100%9-09-026.5nonenone
7Centennial (Corona, CA)SouthernBig VIII100%10-010-0102.8nonenone
8Inglewood (CA)SouthernOcean100%8-08-061.4nonenone
9Wasco (CA)CentralSouth Sequoia100%9-09-021.8nonenone
10St. Francis (Mountain View, CA)Central CoastWest Catholic100%9-09-072.2nonenone
11Branson (Ross, CA)North CoastNorth Central IV (8 Man)100%8-08-041.3nonenone
12University Prep (Redding, CA)NorthernNorthern100%10-010-019.4nonenone
13Strathmore (CA)CentralEast Sequoia100%10-010-017.1nonenone
14Mayfair (Lakewood, CA)SouthernSuburban100%9-09-027.8nonenone
15Campbell Hall (North Hollywood, CA)SouthernGold Coast100%10-010-022.5nonenone
16San Joaquin Memorial (Fresno, CA)CentralCounty/Metro100%8-08-057.1nonenone
17Simi Valley (CA)SouthernCanyon100%10-010-050.1nonenone
18Salinas (CA)Central CoastPacific Coast - Gabilan100%8-08-045nonenone
19Monrovia (CA)SouthernRio Hondo100%10-010-028.6nonenone
20Norte Vista (Riverside, CA)SouthernRiver Valley100%9-09-031.9nonenone
21Fall River (McArthur, CA)NorthernCascade Valley100%9-09-017.1nonenone
22Dymally (Los Angeles, CA)Los AngelesMetro100%9-09-0-7.8nonenone
23Yorba Linda (CA)SouthernCrestview100%10-010-054.2nonenone
24St. Genevieve (Panorama City, CA)SouthernCamino Real100%9-09-030.9nonenone
25Santa Fe Christian (Solana Beach, CA)San DiegoCoastal100%9-09-031nonenone
26Mater Dei (Chula Vista, CA)San DiegoMetro - Mesa100%8-08-062nonenone
27Los Gatos (CA)Central CoastDe Anza100%10-010-052.6nonenone
28Baldwin Park (CA)SouthernMt. Baldy 4100%10-010-01.1nonenone
29Priory (Portola Valley, CA)Central CoastPacific Coast (8 Man)100%8-08-021.6nonenone
30Carlsbad (CA)San DiegoAvocado100%10-010-063.9nonenone
31Mission Prep (San Luis Obispo, CA)CentralOcean100%9-09-029.8nonenone
32Santa Cruz (CA)Central CoastPacific Coast - Mission100%9-09-023.5nonenone
33Menlo (Atherton, CA)Central CoastPeninsula - Ocean100%10-010-038.3nonenone
34St. Bonaventure (Ventura, CA)SouthernMarmonte100%9-09-060.2nonenone
35Warren (Downey, CA)SouthernSan Gabriel Valley100%8-08-059.6nonenone
36Lincoln [Abraham] (Los Angeles, CA)Los AngelesNorthern100%10-010-07.1nonenone
37Rocklin (CA)Sac-JoaquinSierra Foothill100%10-010-062.8nonenone
38West Hills (Santee, CA)San DiegoGrossmont - Valley100%10-010-014.1nonenone
39Davis [Grace] (Modesto, CA)Sac-JoaquinWestern100%10-010-09.6nonenone
40North [John W.] (Riverside, CA)SouthernSunbelt100%10-010-037.8nonenone
41Palisades (Pacific Palisades, CA)Los AngelesWestern100%10-010-029.2nonenone
42Fresno Christian (Fresno, CA)CentralCentral Sierra (8 Man)100%9-09-053.7nonenone
43Arroyo (El Monte, CA)SouthernMission Valley100%10-010-011.2nonenone
44Etiwanda (CA)SouthernBaseline100%10-010-060.9nonenone
45Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA)SouthernTrinity100%8-08-0116.1nonenone
46California School for the Deaf (Riverside, CA)SouthernVictory (8 Man)100%9-09-029.6nonenone
47Cajon (San Bernardino, CA)SouthernCitrus Belt100%10-010-053nonenone
48Irvine (CA)SouthernPacific Hills100%10-010-034.6nonenone
49San Diego Jewish Academy (San Diego, CA)San DiegoOcean (8 Man)100%7-07-020.8nonenone
50Tennyson (Hayward, CA)North CoastMVAL/WACC - Shoreline100%9-09-010.2nonenone