|CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON|
Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)
Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)
Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores. They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.
6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart. Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included. Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.
|RANK||SCHOOL||SECTION||LEAGUE||CHANCE||RECORD||PROJECTED RECORD||RATING||HIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENT||REMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)|
|1||Scotts Valley (CA)||Central Coast||Santa Cruz Coast - B||100%||6-0||6-0||0||none||none|
|2||Campolindo (Moraga, CA)||North Coast||Diablo - Foothill||100%||6-0||6-0||33.3||none||none|
|3||Santa Ana (CA)||Southern||Orange Coast||100%||6-0||6-0||31.5||none||none|
|4||Harvard-Westlake (Studio City, CA)||Southern||Del Rey||100%||6-0||6-0||22.6||none||none|
|5||Portola (CA)||Northern||Cascade Valley I||100%||7-0||7-0||-3.5||none||none|
|6||Los Alamitos (CA)||Southern||Sunset||100%||6-0||6-0||64||none||none|
|7||La Habra (CA)||Southern||Freeway||100%||6-0||6-0||42.3||none||none|
|8||Vintage (Napa, CA)||North Coast||Vine Valley||100%||6-0||6-0||37.1||none||none|
|10||De La Salle (Concord, CA)||North Coast||East Bay - Mountain||100%||6-0||6-0||65.9||none||none|
|11||Folsom (CA)||Sac-Joaquin||Sierra Foothill||100%||6-0||6-0||59||none||none|