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RUNNING-THE-TABLE



ILLINOIS TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores.  They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart.  Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included.  Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANKSCHOOLLEAGUECHANCERECORDPROJECTED RECORDRATINGHIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENTREMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1Knoxville (IL)Prairieland - Black100%9-09-011.1nonenone
2Mt. Zion (IL)Apollo100%9-09-027.6nonenone
3Glenwood (Chatham, IL)Central State Eight100%9-09-047.6nonenone
4Central (Clifton, IL)Sangamon Valley100%9-09-05.2nonenone
5Richmond-Burton (Richmond, IL)Kishwaukee River100%9-09-042nonenone
6Sterling (IL)Western Big 6100%9-09-034.9nonenone
7Crete-Monee (Crete, IL)Southland100%9-09-027.9nonenone
8Rolling Meadows (IL)Mid-Suburban - East100%9-09-036.1nonenone
9Nazareth Academy (LaGrange Park, IL)CCL/ESCC - Orange100%9-09-050.5nonenone
10Wethersfield/Annawan (Kewanee, IL)Lincoln Trail100%9-09-023.2nonenone
11Minooka (IL)Southwest Prairie - West100%9-09-038.3nonenone
12Fieldcrest (Minonk, IL)Heart of Illinois - Large100%9-09-019.2nonenone
13Polo (IL)8-Man Freelance (8 Man)100%9-09-013.6nonenone
14Glenbard West (Glen Ellyn, IL)West Suburban - Silver100%9-09-051.4nonenone
15Payton College Prep [Walter] (Chicago, IL)Chicago Public Illini - Prairie State100%8-08-07.5nonenone
16Mount Carmel (Chicago, IL)CCL/ESCC - Blue100%9-09-053.2nonenone
17Williamsville (IL)Sangamo100%9-09-032.6nonenone
18East St. Louis (IL)Southwestern100%9-09-062.3nonenone
19Fairfield (IL)Black Diamond100%9-09-013nonenone
20Boylan (Rockford, IL)Northern Illinois100%9-09-031.5nonenone
21Illinois Valley Central (Chillicothe, IL)Illini Prairie100%9-09-015.7nonenone
22Central A & M (Moweaqua, IL)Central Illinois100%9-09-023.5nonenone
23Morrison (IL)Three Rivers - Rock100%9-09-024.8nonenone
24Aquin Catholic (Freeport, IL)Northwest Upstate Illini - South100%9-09-025.1nonenone
25Beardstown (IL)Western Illinois Valley - North100%9-09-06.3nonenone
26Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort, IL)Southwest Suburban100%9-09-058.1nonenone
27Coal City (IL)Illinois Central Eight100%9-09-029.2nonenone
28Milford/Cissna Park (Milford, IL)8-Man Freelance (8 Man)100%9-09-03.2nonenone
29Warren Township (Gurnee, IL)North Suburban100%9-09-053.2nonenone
30Vandalia (IL)South Central100%9-09-014.9nonenone
31Columbia (IL)Cahokia100%9-09-024.8nonenone
32Lena-Winslow (Lena, IL)Northwest Upstate Illini - North100%9-09-049.1nonenone