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RUNNING-THE-TABLE



CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores.  They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart.  Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included.  Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANKSCHOOLSECTIONLEAGUECHANCERECORDPROJECTED RECORDRATINGHIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENTREMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1San Fernando (CA)Los AngelesValley Mission100%9-09-017.9nonenone
2Cypress (CA)SouthernEmpire100%10-010-032.3nonenone
3Scripps Ranch (San Diego, CA)San DiegoCity100%10-010-027.5nonenone
4Kingsburg (CA)CentralCentral Sequoia100%10-010-032.2nonenone
5Serrano (Phelan, CA)SouthernMojave River100%10-010-035.7nonenone
6Rio Hondo Prep (Arcadia, CA)SouthernPrep100%8-08-018.1nonenone
7Alhambra (CA)SouthernAlmont100%10-010-010.5nonenone
8Half Moon Bay (CA)Central CoastPeninsula - Ocean100%10-010-032.1nonenone
9McClymonds (Oakland, CA)OaklandOakland100%9-09-041.4nonenone
10Inglewood (CA)SouthernPioneer100%10-010-027.6nonenone
11Foothill (Santa Ana, CA)SouthernNorth Hills100%10-010-034.8nonenone
12Coast Union (Cambria, CA)SouthernCoast Valley (8 Man)100%9-09-022.4nonenone
13Center (Antelope, CA)Sac-JoaquinPioneer Valley100%9-09-039.1nonenone
14Corona del Mar (Newport Beach, CA)SouthernSunset100%10-010-067.8nonenone
15Central (Fresno, CA)CentralTri-River100%10-010-067.9nonenone
16Mission Viejo (CA)SouthernSouth Coast100%10-010-072.6nonenone
17Hanford (CA)CentralWest Yosemite100%10-010-032.5nonenone
18Marquez [Linda Esperanza] (Huntington Park, CA)Los AngelesCentral100%10-010-0-4.5nonenone
19Chester (CA)NorthernCalifornia - South (8 Man)100%9-09-028.6nonenone
20Inderkum (Sacramento, CA)Sac-JoaquinCapital Valley100%10-010-038.9nonenone
21West Valley (Cottonwood, CA)NorthernNorthern100%10-010-025.3nonenone
22Crescenta Valley (La Crescenta, CA)SouthernPacific100%10-010-033.9nonenone
23Bishop's (La Jolla, CA)San DiegoCoastal100%10-010-033.7nonenone
24Buhach Colony (Atwater, CA)Sac-JoaquinCentral California - CCC100%10-010-030.2nonenone
25Paradise (CA)NorthernFreelance100%10-010-025.3nonenone
26El Monte (CA)SouthernMission Valley100%10-010-028.7nonenone
27St. Pius X-St. Matthias (Downey, CA)SouthernSanta Fe100%9-09-08.7nonenone
28Ayala [Ruben S.] (Chino Hills, CA)SouthernPalomares100%10-010-037.2nonenone
29Culver City (CA)SouthernOcean100%10-010-044.1nonenone
30Kaiser [Henry J.] (Fontana, CA)SouthernSunkist100%10-010-028.2nonenone
31Foothills Christian (El Cajon, CA)San DiegoOcean (8 Man)100%9-09-030.2nonenone
32Windward (Los Angeles, CA)SouthernPrep (8 Man)100%7-07-067.6nonenone
33La Serna (Whittier, CA)SouthernDel Rio100%10-010-045.5nonenone
34Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA)SouthernTrinity100%10-010-096.1nonenone
35San Diego Jewish Academy (San Diego, CA)San DiegoCitrus (8 Man)100%7-07-0-0.2nonenone
36Cornerstone Christian (Antioch, CA)Central CoastPacific Coast (8 Man)100%10-010-042.5nonenone
37Oak Park (CA)SouthernCanyon100%10-010-018.3nonenone