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RUNNING-THE-TABLE



CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores.  They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart.  Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included.  Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANKSCHOOLSECTIONLEAGUECHANCERECORDPROJECTED RECORDRATINGHIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENTREMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1San Fernando (CA)Los AngelesValley Mission100%9-09-020.2nonenone
2Cypress (CA)SouthernEmpire100%10-010-030.7nonenone
3Scripps Ranch (San Diego, CA)San DiegoCity100%10-010-026nonenone
4Kingsburg (CA)CentralCentral Sequoia100%10-010-035.3nonenone
5Serrano (Phelan, CA)SouthernMojave River100%10-010-036.4nonenone
6Rio Hondo Prep (Arcadia, CA)SouthernPrep100%8-08-019.2nonenone
7Alhambra (CA)SouthernAlmont100%10-010-011.2nonenone
8Half Moon Bay (CA)Central CoastPeninsula - Ocean100%10-010-032.8nonenone
9McClymonds (Oakland, CA)OaklandOakland100%9-09-041.5nonenone
10Inglewood (CA)SouthernPioneer100%10-010-026.3nonenone
11Foothill (Santa Ana, CA)SouthernNorth Hills100%10-010-038.4nonenone
12Coast Union (Cambria, CA)SouthernCoast Valley (8 Man)100%9-09-017.5nonenone
13Center (Antelope, CA)Sac-JoaquinPioneer Valley100%9-09-038.2nonenone
14Corona del Mar (Newport Beach, CA)SouthernSunset100%10-010-062.3nonenone
15Central (Fresno, CA)CentralTri-River100%10-010-065.7nonenone
16Mission Viejo (CA)SouthernSouth Coast100%10-010-072.3nonenone
17Hanford (CA)CentralWest Yosemite100%10-010-032.7nonenone
18Marquez [Linda Esperanza] (Huntington Park, CA)Los AngelesCentral100%10-010-0-3.8nonenone
19Chester (CA)NorthernCalifornia - South (8 Man)100%9-09-023.9nonenone
20Inderkum (Sacramento, CA)Sac-JoaquinCapital Valley100%10-010-038.9nonenone
21West Valley (Cottonwood, CA)NorthernNorthern100%10-010-025.8nonenone
22Crescenta Valley (La Crescenta, CA)SouthernPacific100%10-010-032.1nonenone
23Bishop's (La Jolla, CA)San DiegoCoastal100%10-010-031.8nonenone
24Buhach Colony (Atwater, CA)Sac-JoaquinCentral California - CCC100%10-010-028.7nonenone
25Paradise (CA)NorthernFreelance100%10-010-023.4nonenone
26El Monte (CA)SouthernMission Valley100%10-010-020.7nonenone
27St. Pius X-St. Matthias (Downey, CA)SouthernSanta Fe100%9-09-06nonenone
28Ayala [Ruben S.] (Chino Hills, CA)SouthernPalomares100%10-010-041.2nonenone
29Culver City (CA)SouthernOcean100%10-010-041.4nonenone
30Kaiser [Henry J.] (Fontana, CA)SouthernSunkist100%10-010-027.7nonenone
31Foothills Christian (El Cajon, CA)San DiegoOcean (8 Man)100%9-09-028.3nonenone
32Windward (Los Angeles, CA)SouthernPrep (8 Man)100%7-07-060nonenone
33La Serna (Whittier, CA)SouthernDel Rio100%10-010-046.2nonenone
34Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA)SouthernTrinity100%10-010-096.9nonenone
35San Diego Jewish Academy (San Diego, CA)San DiegoCitrus (8 Man)100%7-07-0-1.9nonenone
36Cornerstone Christian (Antioch, CA)Central CoastPacific Coast (8 Man)100%10-010-037.6nonenone
37Oak Park (CA)SouthernCanyon100%10-010-021.6nonenone