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RUNNING-THE-TABLE



CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores.  They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart.  Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included.  Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANKSCHOOLSECTIONLEAGUECHANCERECORDPROJECTED RECORDRATINGHIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENTREMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1Highland (Palmdale, CA)SouthernGolden100%10-010-036nonenone
2Liberty (Brentwood, CA)North CoastBay Valley100%10-010-065nonenone
3Moreau Catholic (Hayward, CA)North CoastMission Valley100%10-010-017nonenone
4Los Molinos (CA)NorthernCalifornia - South (8 Man)100%9-09-023.7nonenone
5Heritage Christian (Northridge, CA)SouthernOlympic100%9-09-05.4nonenone
6Las Lomas (Walnut Creek, CA)North CoastDiablo - Valley100%10-010-030nonenone
7Gonzales (CA)Central CoastPacific Coast - Santa Lucia100%10-010-01.8nonenone
8St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA)SouthernTrinity100%10-010-097.5nonenone
9Caruthers (CA)CentralWest Sequoia100%10-010-011.4nonenone
10Centennial (Corona, CA)SouthernBig VIII100%10-010-077.9nonenone
11Big Valley (Bieber, CA)NorthernCalifornia - North (8 Man)100%9-09-06.4nonenone
12Torrey Pines (San Diego, CA)San DiegoAvocado100%9-09-060.7nonenone
13Citrus Hill (Perris, CA)SouthernMountain Pass100%10-010-039nonenone
14Oaks Christian (Westlake Village, CA)SouthernMarmonte100%10-010-075nonenone
15East Nicolaus (Nicolaus, CA)NorthernMid-Valley100%10-010-024.5nonenone
16Tulare Union (Tulare, CA)CentralEast Yosemite100%10-010-041.7nonenone
17Sage Hill (Newport Beach, CA)SouthernExpress (8 Man)100%9-09-019.7nonenone
18Central (El Centro, CA)San DiegoImperial Valley100%10-010-029.9nonenone
19Northview (Covina, CA)SouthernValle Vista100%10-010-039.3nonenone
20Villa Park (CA)SouthernCrestview100%10-010-052.7nonenone
21San Joaquin Memorial (Fresno, CA)CentralCounty/Metro100%10-010-052.3nonenone
22Central (Fresno, CA)CentralTri-River100%10-010-064.6nonenone
23Mojave (CA)SouthernDesert Mountain (8 Man)100%7-07-066.6nonenone
24Carmel (CA)Central CoastPacific Coast - Mission100%10-010-028nonenone
25Fall River (McArthur, CA)NorthernCascade Valley100%10-010-01.4nonenone
26Eureka (CA)North CoastHumboldt-Del Norte - Big 4100%10-010-043.5nonenone
27Inderkum (Sacramento, CA)Sac-JoaquinCapital Valley100%10-010-057.8nonenone
28Palm Desert (CA)SouthernDesert Empire100%10-010-025.5nonenone
29Ripon Christian (Ripon, CA)Sac-JoaquinSouthern100%10-010-023.2nonenone
30Monterey Trail (Elk Grove, CA)Sac-JoaquinMetropolitan100%10-010-053.9nonenone
31Independence (San Jose, CA)Central CoastSanta Teresa100%10-010-019.5nonenone
32Placer (Auburn, CA)Sac-JoaquinFoothill Valley100%10-010-048nonenone
33Garfield [James A.] (Los Angeles, CA)Los AngelesEastern100%10-010-024.4nonenone
34Mission Prep (San Luis Obispo, CA)CentralCentral Sierra (8 Man)100%10-010-054.8nonenone
35De La Salle (Concord, CA)North CoastEast Bay - Mountain100%10-010-083.8nonenone
36Katella (Anaheim, CA)SouthernOrange100%10-010-016.8nonenone
37Eisenhower (Rialto, CA)SouthernSan Andreas100%10-010-033nonenone
38Bloomington Christian (Bloomington, CA)SouthernVictory (8 Man)100%7-07-051.7nonenone
39Pinole Valley (Pinole, CA)North CoastTri-County - Stone100%10-010-05.3nonenone
40South Hills (West Covina, CA)SouthernHacienda100%10-010-042.8nonenone
41Rancho Verde (Moreno Valley, CA)SouthernIvy100%10-010-056.7nonenone
42Colfax (CA)Sac-JoaquinPioneer Valley100%10-010-033.6nonenone
43Cate (Carpinteria, CA)SouthernMt. Pinos (8 Man)100%8-08-046.4nonenone
44Capital Christian (Sacramento, CA)Sac-JoaquinCapital100%10-010-045.7nonenone
45Merced (CA)Sac-JoaquinCentral California - CCC100%10-010-040.1nonenone
46Lincoln [Abraham] (San Francisco, CA)San FranciscoAcademic100%10-010-013.4nonenone
47Wilcox [Adrian] (Santa Clara, CA)Central CoastDe Anza100%10-010-043.2nonenone
48Eagle Rock (Los Angeles, CA)Los AngelesNorthern100%9-09-025.9nonenone
49Shafter (CA)CentralSouth Sequoia100%10-010-028.1nonenone
50Chadwick (Palos Verdes Peninsula, CA)SouthernPrep (8 Man)100%8-08-046.2nonenone
51Cornerstone Christian (Antioch, CA)Central CoastPacific Coast (8 Man)100%9-09-014.2nonenone
52Stuart Hall (San Francisco, CA)North CoastNorth Central III - South (8 Man)100%8-08-031.6nonenone