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RUNNING-THE-TABLE

CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (53%), 2 (57%), 3 (58%), 4 (60%), 5 (61%), 6 (62%), 7 (65%), 8 (72%), 9 (73%), 10 (74%), 11 (75%), 12 (77%), 13 (80%), 14 (81%), 15 (84%), 16 (86%), 17 (87%), 18 (87%), 19 (88%), 20 (88%), 21 (90%), 22 (92%), 23 (93%), 24 (94%), 25 (95%), 26 (95%), 27 (96%), 28 (96%), 29 (97%), 30 (97%), 31 (97%), 32 (98%), 33 (98%), 34 (98%), 35 (98%), 36 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores. They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart. Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included. Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANK SCHOOL SECTION LEAGUE CHANCE RECORD PROJECTED RECORD RATING HIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENT REMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1 Highland (Palmdale, CA) Southern Golden 100% 10-0 10-0 36 none none
2 Liberty (Brentwood, CA) North Coast Bay Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 65 none none
3 Moreau Catholic (Hayward, CA) North Coast Mission Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 17 none none
4 Los Molinos (CA) Northern California - South (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 23.7 none none
5 Heritage Christian (Northridge, CA) Southern Olympic 100% 9-0 9-0 5.4 none none
6 Las Lomas (Walnut Creek, CA) North Coast Diablo - Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 30 none none
7 Gonzales (CA) Central Coast Pacific Coast - Santa Lucia 100% 10-0 10-0 1.8 none none
8 St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA) Southern Trinity 100% 10-0 10-0 97.5 none none
9 Caruthers (CA) Central West Sequoia 100% 10-0 10-0 11.4 none none
10 Centennial (Corona, CA) Southern Big VIII 100% 10-0 10-0 77.9 none none
11 Big Valley (Bieber, CA) Northern California - North (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 6.4 none none
12 Torrey Pines (San Diego, CA) San Diego Avocado 100% 9-0 9-0 60.7 none none
13 Citrus Hill (Perris, CA) Southern Mountain Pass 100% 10-0 10-0 39 none none
14 Oaks Christian (Westlake Village, CA) Southern Marmonte 100% 10-0 10-0 75 none none
15 East Nicolaus (Nicolaus, CA) Northern Mid-Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 24.5 none none
16 Tulare Union (Tulare, CA) Central East Yosemite 100% 10-0 10-0 41.7 none none
17 Sage Hill (Newport Beach, CA) Southern Express (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 19.7 none none
18 Central (El Centro, CA) San Diego Imperial Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 29.9 none none
19 Northview (Covina, CA) Southern Valle Vista 100% 10-0 10-0 39.3 none none
20 Villa Park (CA) Southern Crestview 100% 10-0 10-0 52.7 none none
21 San Joaquin Memorial (Fresno, CA) Central County/Metro 100% 10-0 10-0 52.3 none none
22 Central (Fresno, CA) Central Tri-River 100% 10-0 10-0 64.6 none none
23 Mojave (CA) Southern Desert Mountain (8 Man) 100% 7-0 7-0 66.6 none none
24 Carmel (CA) Central Coast Pacific Coast - Mission 100% 10-0 10-0 28 none none
25 Fall River (McArthur, CA) Northern Cascade Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 1.4 none none
26 Eureka (CA) North Coast Humboldt-Del Norte - Big 4 100% 10-0 10-0 43.5 none none
27 Inderkum (Sacramento, CA) Sac-Joaquin Capital Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 57.8 none none
28 Palm Desert (CA) Southern Desert Empire 100% 10-0 10-0 25.5 none none
29 Ripon Christian (Ripon, CA) Sac-Joaquin Southern 100% 10-0 10-0 23.2 none none
30 Monterey Trail (Elk Grove, CA) Sac-Joaquin Metropolitan 100% 10-0 10-0 53.9 none none
31 Independence (San Jose, CA) Central Coast Santa Teresa 100% 10-0 10-0 19.5 none none
32 Placer (Auburn, CA) Sac-Joaquin Foothill Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 48 none none
33 Garfield [James A.] (Los Angeles, CA) Los Angeles Eastern 100% 10-0 10-0 24.4 none none
34 Mission Prep (San Luis Obispo, CA) Central Central Sierra (8 Man) 100% 10-0 10-0 54.8 none none
35 De La Salle (Concord, CA) North Coast East Bay - Mountain 100% 10-0 10-0 83.8 none none
36 Katella (Anaheim, CA) Southern Orange 100% 10-0 10-0 16.8 none none
37 Eisenhower (Rialto, CA) Southern San Andreas 100% 10-0 10-0 33 none none
38 Bloomington Christian (Bloomington, CA) Southern Victory (8 Man) 100% 7-0 7-0 51.7 none none
39 Pinole Valley (Pinole, CA) North Coast Tri-County - Stone 100% 10-0 10-0 5.3 none none
40 South Hills (West Covina, CA) Southern Hacienda 100% 10-0 10-0 42.8 none none
41 Rancho Verde (Moreno Valley, CA) Southern Ivy 100% 10-0 10-0 56.7 none none
42 Colfax (CA) Sac-Joaquin Pioneer Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 33.6 none none
43 Cate (Carpinteria, CA) Southern Mt. Pinos (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 46.4 none none
44 Capital Christian (Sacramento, CA) Sac-Joaquin Capital 100% 10-0 10-0 45.7 none none
45 Merced (CA) Sac-Joaquin Central California - CCC 100% 10-0 10-0 40.1 none none
46 Lincoln [Abraham] (San Francisco, CA) San Francisco Academic 100% 10-0 10-0 13.4 none none
47 Wilcox [Adrian] (Santa Clara, CA) Central Coast De Anza 100% 10-0 10-0 43.2 none none
48 Eagle Rock (Los Angeles, CA) Los Angeles Northern 100% 9-0 9-0 25.9 none none
49 Shafter (CA) Central South Sequoia 100% 10-0 10-0 28.1 none none
50 Chadwick (Palos Verdes Peninsula, CA) Southern Prep (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 46.2 none none
51 Cornerstone Christian (Antioch, CA) Central Coast Pacific Coast (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 14.2 none none
52 Stuart Hall (San Francisco, CA) North Coast North Central III - South (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 31.6 none none