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RUNNING-THE-TABLE



CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores.  They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart.  Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included.  Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANKSCHOOLSECTIONLEAGUECHANCERECORDPROJECTED RECORDRATINGHIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENTREMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1Highland (Palmdale, CA)SouthernGolden100%10-010-039.1nonenone
2Liberty (Brentwood, CA)North CoastBay Valley100%10-010-063.6nonenone
3Moreau Catholic (Hayward, CA)North CoastMission Valley100%10-010-019.7nonenone
4Los Molinos (CA)NorthernCalifornia - South (8 Man)100%9-09-024nonenone
5Heritage Christian (Northridge, CA)SouthernOlympic100%9-09-05.7nonenone
6Las Lomas (Walnut Creek, CA)North CoastDiablo - Valley100%10-010-030.4nonenone
7Gonzales (CA)Central CoastPacific Coast - Santa Lucia100%10-010-05nonenone
8St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA)SouthernTrinity100%10-010-098.6nonenone
9Caruthers (CA)CentralWest Sequoia100%10-010-011.5nonenone
10Centennial (Corona, CA)SouthernBig VIII100%10-010-077.2nonenone
11Big Valley (Bieber, CA)NorthernCalifornia - North (8 Man)100%9-09-06.7nonenone
12Torrey Pines (San Diego, CA)San DiegoAvocado100%9-09-060.4nonenone
13Citrus Hill (Perris, CA)SouthernMountain Pass100%10-010-039.5nonenone
14Oaks Christian (Westlake Village, CA)SouthernMarmonte100%10-010-074.8nonenone
15East Nicolaus (Nicolaus, CA)NorthernMid-Valley100%10-010-022.5nonenone
16Tulare Union (Tulare, CA)CentralEast Yosemite100%10-010-045.1nonenone
17Sage Hill (Newport Beach, CA)SouthernExpress (8 Man)100%9-09-020.5nonenone
18Central (El Centro, CA)San DiegoImperial Valley100%10-010-031.4nonenone
19Northview (Covina, CA)SouthernValle Vista100%10-010-039.5nonenone
20Villa Park (CA)SouthernCrestview100%10-010-052.5nonenone
21San Joaquin Memorial (Fresno, CA)CentralCounty/Metro100%10-010-048.1nonenone
22Central (Fresno, CA)CentralTri-River100%10-010-065nonenone
23Mojave (CA)SouthernDesert Mountain (8 Man)100%7-07-061nonenone
24Carmel (CA)Central CoastPacific Coast - Mission100%10-010-029.9nonenone
25Fall River (McArthur, CA)NorthernCascade Valley100%10-010-00nonenone
26Eureka (CA)North CoastHumboldt-Del Norte - Big 4100%10-010-043.6nonenone
27Inderkum (Sacramento, CA)Sac-JoaquinCapital Valley100%10-010-060nonenone
28Palm Desert (CA)SouthernDesert Empire100%10-010-025.6nonenone
29Ripon Christian (Ripon, CA)Sac-JoaquinSouthern100%10-010-022.2nonenone
30Monterey Trail (Elk Grove, CA)Sac-JoaquinMetropolitan100%10-010-050.6nonenone
31Placer (Auburn, CA)Sac-JoaquinFoothill Valley100%10-010-049.9nonenone
32Independence (San Jose, CA)Central CoastSanta Teresa100%10-010-022.9nonenone
33Garfield [James A.] (Los Angeles, CA)Los AngelesEastern100%10-010-024.7nonenone
34Mission Prep (San Luis Obispo, CA)CentralCentral Sierra (8 Man)100%10-010-054.9nonenone
35De La Salle (Concord, CA)North CoastEast Bay - Mountain100%10-010-079nonenone
36Katella (Anaheim, CA)SouthernOrange100%10-010-017.2nonenone
37Eisenhower (Rialto, CA)SouthernSan Andreas100%10-010-031nonenone
38Bloomington Christian (Bloomington, CA)SouthernVictory (8 Man)100%7-07-049.6nonenone
39Pinole Valley (Pinole, CA)North CoastTri-County - Stone100%10-010-06.1nonenone
40South Hills (West Covina, CA)SouthernHacienda100%10-010-044.6nonenone
41Rancho Verde (Moreno Valley, CA)SouthernIvy100%10-010-058.6nonenone
42Colfax (CA)Sac-JoaquinPioneer Valley100%10-010-031.6nonenone
43Cate (Carpinteria, CA)SouthernMt. Pinos (8 Man)100%8-08-046.8nonenone
44Capital Christian (Sacramento, CA)Sac-JoaquinCapital100%10-010-045nonenone
45Merced (CA)Sac-JoaquinCentral California - CCC100%10-010-040.1nonenone
46Lincoln [Abraham] (San Francisco, CA)San FranciscoAcademic100%10-010-010.7nonenone
47Wilcox [Adrian] (Santa Clara, CA)Central CoastDe Anza100%10-010-039.4nonenone
48Eagle Rock (Los Angeles, CA)Los AngelesNorthern100%9-09-026.2nonenone
49Shafter (CA)CentralSouth Sequoia100%10-010-031.9nonenone
50Chadwick (Palos Verdes Peninsula, CA)SouthernPrep (8 Man)100%8-08-045.3nonenone
51Cornerstone Christian (Antioch, CA)Central CoastPacific Coast (8 Man)100%9-09-016.3nonenone
52Stuart Hall (San Francisco, CA)North CoastNorth Central III - South (8 Man)100%8-08-029.9nonenone