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RUNNING-THE-TABLE



CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores.  They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart.  Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included.  Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANKSCHOOLSECTIONLEAGUECHANCERECORDPROJECTED RECORDRATINGHIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENTREMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1Capistrano Valley (Mission Viejo, CA)SouthernSea View100%10-010-043.6nonenone
2Orestimba (Newman, CA)Sac-JoaquinSouthern100%10-010-014.6nonenone
3Harker (San Jose, CA)North CoastFreelance100%9-09-012.1nonenone
4Caruthers (CA)CentralWest Sequoia100%9-09-012nonenone
5Big Valley (Bieber, CA)NorthernCalifornia - North (8 Man)100%8-08-054.5nonenone
6Ramona (CA)San DiegoPalomar100%10-010-043.2nonenone
7Animo Robinson [Jackie] (Los Angeles, CA)Los AngelesCity (8 Man)100%9-09-044.6nonenone
8Yosemite (Oakhurst, CA)CentralFreelance100%8-08-00nonenone
9McClymonds (Oakland, CA)OaklandOakland100%10-010-032.8nonenone
10Half Moon Bay (CA)Central CoastPeninsula - Bay100%10-010-043.7nonenone
11Charter Oak (Covina, CA)SouthernHacienda100%10-010-045.2nonenone
12Lompoc (CA)SouthernLos Padres100%10-010-047.1nonenone
13East Nicolaus (Nicolaus, CA)NorthernMid-Valley100%10-010-025.7nonenone
14Santa Clarita Christian (Canyon Country, CA)SouthernSan Joaquin100%10-010-0-5.1nonenone
15Tulare Union (Tulare, CA)CentralEast Yosemite100%10-010-049.5nonenone
16Strathmore (CA)CentralEast Sequoia100%10-010-013.8nonenone
17Lawndale (CA)SouthernOcean100%10-010-040.5nonenone
18Rio Mesa (Oxnard, CA)SouthernPacific View100%10-010-041.8nonenone
19Marin Catholic (Kentfield, CA)North CoastMarin County100%8-08-038.3nonenone
20Mission Viejo (CA)SouthernSouth Coast100%10-010-071.7nonenone
21Eureka (CA)North CoastHumboldt-Del Norte - Big 5100%10-010-023.6nonenone
22Inderkum (Sacramento, CA)Sac-JoaquinTri-County100%10-010-042nonenone
23Bishop's (La Jolla, CA)San DiegoCoastal100%9-09-038.6nonenone
24Calvin Christian (Escondido, CA)San DiegoOcean (8 Man)100%10-010-016.8nonenone
25Trona (CA)Central8-Man Freelance (8 Man)100%9-09-038.6nonenone
26St. Bernard's (Eureka, CA)North CoastHumboldt-Del Norte - Little 3100%10-010-018.9nonenone
27Southwest (El Centro, CA)San DiegoImperial Valley100%10-010-034.5nonenone
28Apple Valley (CA)SouthernMojave River100%10-010-037.1nonenone
29Gilroy (CA)Central CoastMonterey Bay - Pacific100%10-010-020.7nonenone
30Folsom (CA)Sac-JoaquinSierra Foothill100%10-010-073.3nonenone
31Aquinas (San Bernardino, CA)SouthernAmbassador100%10-010-041.7nonenone
32Gregori [Joseph A.] (Modesto, CA)Sac-JoaquinModesto Metro100%10-010-031.4nonenone
33Del Campo (Fair Oaks, CA)Sac-JoaquinCapital Valley100%10-010-045.2nonenone
34Upland (CA)SouthernBaseline100%10-010-067nonenone
35San Diego (CA)San DiegoCentral100%10-010-011nonenone
36Milpitas (CA)Central CoastDe Anza100%9-09-040.6nonenone
37Arroyo (El Monte, CA)SouthernMission Valley100%10-010-017.4nonenone
38Encinal (Alameda, CA)North CoastWest Alameda County - Shoreline100%10-010-015.8nonenone
39Faith Baptist (Canoga Park, CA)Southern8-Man Freelance (8 Man)100%7-07-079nonenone
40Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA)SouthernTrinity100%10-010-097.6nonenone
41Mission Hills (San Marcos, CA)San DiegoAvocado100%10-010-062.5nonenone
42Chadwick (Palos Verdes Peninsula, CA)Southern8-Man Freelance (8 Man)100%9-09-041.1nonenone
43Villanova Prep (Ojai, CA)SouthernMt. Pinos (8 Man)100%9-09-046.2nonenone