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RUNNING-THE-TABLE



CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores.  They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart.  Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANKSCHOOLSECTIONLEAGUECHANCERECORDPROJECTED RECORDRATINGHIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENTREMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1Capistrano Valley (Mission Viejo, CA)SouthernSea View98%8-010-048.7Aliso Niguel (Aliso Viejo, CA) (10.6)Aliso Niguel (Aliso Viejo, CA) (99%), Dana Hills (Dana Point, CA) (99%)
2Marin Catholic (Kentfield, CA)North CoastMarin County98%6-08-040.9Justin-Siena (Napa, CA) (-14)Redwood (Larkspur, CA) (99%), Justin-Siena (Napa, CA) (99%)
3Faith Baptist (Canoga Park, CA)Southern8-Man Freelance (8 Man)98%6-08-054.5Price [Frederick K.] (Los Angeles, CA) (-12.4)Price [Frederick K.] (Los Angeles, CA) (99%), Blair (Pasadena, CA) (99%)
4Chadwick (Palos Verdes Peninsula, CA)Southern8-Man Freelance (8 Man)98%7-09-038.8Flintridge Prep (La Canada, CA) (10.8)Calvary Chapel (Downey, CA) (99%), Flintridge Prep (La Canada, CA) (99%)
5Harker (San Jose, CA)North CoastFreelance98%7-09-014.2Irvington (Fremont, CA) (-12.7)Lindhurst (Olivehurst, CA) (99%), Irvington (Fremont, CA) (99%)
6Big Valley (Bieber, CA)NorthernCalifornia - North (8 Man)98%6-08-044.9Redding Christian (Palo Cedro, CA) (4.1)Redding Christian (Palo Cedro, CA) (99%), Hayfork (CA) (99%)
7Rio Mesa (Oxnard, CA)SouthernPacific View98%8-010-043.8Hueneme (Oxnard, CA) (2.9)Hueneme (Oxnard, CA) (99%), Channel Islands (Oxnard, CA) (99%)
8Trona (CA)Central8-Man Freelance (8 Man)98%8-010-032.2Mammoth (Mammoth Lakes, CA) (-6.6)Mammoth (Mammoth Lakes, CA) (99%), Maricopa (CA) (99%)
9Arroyo (El Monte, CA)SouthernMission Valley98%8-010-023.9Mountain View (El Monte, CA) (-20.2)Marshall [John] (Pasadena, CA) (99%), Mountain View (El Monte, CA) (99%)
10Ramona (CA)San DiegoPalomar97%7-010-043.9Poway (CA) (15.6)Rancho Buena Vista (Vista, CA) (99%), Poway (CA) (99%), Del Norte (San Diego, CA) (99%)
11Animo Robinson [Jackie] (Los Angeles, CA)Los AngelesCity (8 Man)97%7-010-045Desert (Edwards AFB, CA) (-9.1)Blair (Pasadena, CA) (99%), New Designs University Park (Los Angeles, CA) (99%), Desert (Edwards AFB, CA) (99%)
12McClymonds (Oakland, CA)OaklandOakland97%6-09-029.9Oakland Tech (Oakland, CA) (-9.5)Skyline (Oakland, CA) (99%), Oakland (CA) (99%), Oakland Tech (Oakland, CA) (99%)
13Lawndale (CA)SouthernOcean97%7-010-046El Segundo (CA) (22.3)El Segundo (CA) (99%), Beverly Hills (CA) (99%), Hawthorne (CA) (99%)
14Eureka (CA)North CoastHumboldt-Del Norte - Big 597%7-010-015.9Arcata (CA) (-12.7)McKinleyville (CA) (99%), Del Norte (Crescent City, CA) (99%), Arcata (CA) (99%)
15Milpitas (CA)Central CoastDe Anza97%6-09-040.3Los Gatos (CA) (11.7)Palo Alto (CA) (99%), Los Gatos (CA) (99%), Homestead (Cupertino, CA) (99%)
16Charter Oak (Covina, CA)SouthernHacienda97%7-010-053.4Chino (CA) (8.6)Walnut (CA) (99%), Chino (CA) (99%), West Covina (CA) (99%)
17Santa Clarita Christian (Canyon Country, CA)SouthernSan Joaquin97%7-010-00.9Capistrano Valley Christian (San Juan Capistrano, CA) (-41.7)Capistrano Valley Christian (San Juan Capistrano, CA) (99%), Fairmont Prep (Anaheim, CA) (99%), Southlands Christian (Rowland Heights, CA) (99%)
18St. Bernard's (Eureka, CA)North CoastHumboldt-Del Norte - Little 397%7-010-017.4Ferndale (CA) (-23.3)Hoopa Valley (Hoopa, CA) (99%), Ferndale (CA) (99%), McKinleyville (CA) (99%)
19Aquinas (San Bernardino, CA)SouthernAmbassador97%7-010-041.3Ontario Christian (Ontario, CA) (0)Arrowhead Christian (Redlands, CA) (99%), Western Christian (Upland, CA) (99%), Ontario Christian (Ontario, CA) (99%)
20Upland (CA)SouthernBaseline97%7-010-067.3Etiwanda (CA) (27.3)Chino Hills (CA) (99%), Etiwanda (CA) (99%), Los Osos (Rancho Cucamonga, CA) (99%)
21Encinal (Alameda, CA)North CoastWest Alameda County - Shoreline96%7-010-014.2Alameda (CA) (-10.9)Arroyo (San Lorenzo, CA) (99%), Alameda (CA) (98%), San Lorenzo (CA) (99%)
22Gilroy (CA)Central CoastMonterey Bay - Pacific96%6-010-015.7Watsonville (CA) (-19.5)Pajaro Valley (Watsonville, CA) (99%), Monterey (CA) (99%), North Monterey County (Castroville, CA) (99%), Watsonville (CA) (99%)
23Yosemite (Oakhurst, CA)CentralFreelance96%5-08-0-1.7Amador (Sutter Creek, CA) (-22.1)Parlier (CA) (99%), Amador (Sutter Creek, CA) (98%), Sierra (Tollhouse, CA) (99%)
24Apple Valley (CA)SouthernMojave River96%7-010-035.6Serrano (Phelan, CA) (14.2)Serrano (Phelan, CA) (98%), Sultana (Hesperia, CA) (99%), Hesperia (CA) (99%)
25Inderkum (Sacramento, CA)Sac-JoaquinTri-County95%8-010-048.2River Valley (Yuba City, CA) (25.5)River Valley (Yuba City, CA) (96%), Rio Linda (CA) (99%)
26Calvin Christian (Escondido, CA)San DiegoOcean (8 Man)94%7-010-020.6Foothills Christian (El Cajon, CA) (3.6)Victory Christian (Chula Vista, CA) (99%), Horizon Prep (Rancho Santa Fe, CA) (99%), Foothills Christian (El Cajon, CA) (96%)
27Fremont (Oakland, CA)OaklandOakland92%6-09-06.9Oakland Tech (Oakland, CA) (-9.5)Oakland Tech (Oakland, CA) (96%), Skyline (Oakland, CA) (97%), Castlemont (Oakland, CA) (99%)
28Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA)SouthernTrinity92%7-010-091.4JSerra (San Juan Capistrano, CA) (73.6)JSerra (San Juan Capistrano, CA) (94%), Lutheran (Orange, CA) (99%), Servite (Anaheim, CA) (99%)
29Leland (San Jose, CA)Central CoastSanta Teresa92%6-010-017.4Branham (San Jose, CA) (-3.7)San Jose (CA) (99%), Willow Glen (San Jose, CA) (97%), Gunderson [Henry T.] (San Jose, CA) (99%), Branham (San Jose, CA) (97%)
30Folsom (CA)Sac-JoaquinSierra Foothill92%8-010-070.7Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills, CA) (53.2)Rocklin (CA) (99%), Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills, CA) (93%)
31Orestimba (Newman, CA)Sac-JoaquinSouthern92%7-010-019.8Gustine (CA) (0.5)Waterford (CA) (99%), Delhi (CA) (99%), Gustine (CA) (94%)
32San Diego (CA)San DiegoCentral91%7-010-012.6Henry [Patrick] (San Diego, CA) (-4.9)Henry [Patrick] (San Diego, CA) (94%), Crawford (San Diego, CA) (99%), Coronado (CA) (99%)
33Mission Viejo (CA)SouthernSouth Coast91%8-010-073San Clemente (CA) (61.9)Trabuco Hills (Mission Viejo, CA) (99%), San Clemente (CA) (92%)
34Hercules (CA)North CoastTri-County - Stone91%7-08-03.6De Anza (El Sobrante, CA) (-11.2)De Anza (El Sobrante, CA) (91%)
35Tulare Union (Tulare, CA)CentralEast Yosemite91%7-010-053.8Tulare Western (Tulare, CA) (39.9)Porterville (CA) (99%), Mission Oak (Tulare, CA) (99%), Tulare Western (Tulare, CA) (92%)
36Hesperia Christian (Hesperia, CA)SouthernAgape (8 Man)90%6-08-033.5Academy of Careers & Exploration (Helendale, CA) (18.2)Academy of Careers & Exploration (Helendale, CA) (91%), Lucerne Valley (CA) (99%)
37Lompoc (CA)SouthernLos Padres90%7-010-044.6St. Joseph (Santa Maria, CA) (27.8)Santa Ynez (CA) (96%), St. Joseph (Santa Maria, CA) (95%), Cabrillo (Lompoc, CA) (99%)
38Southwest (El Centro, CA)San DiegoImperial Valley90%7-010-026.2Imperial (CA) (6.7)Imperial (CA) (92%), Palo Verde Valley (Blythe, CA) (99%), Calexico (CA) (99%)
39Santee (Los Angeles, CA)Los AngelesExposition90%7-010-03.3Jefferson [Thomas] (Los Angeles, CA) (-11.4)Rivera [Diego] (Los Angeles, CA) (99%), Jefferson [Thomas] (Los Angeles, CA) (92%), Angelou [Maya] (Los Angeles, CA) (99%)
40Mission Hills (San Marcos, CA)San DiegoAvocado89%7-010-062.3Torrey Pines (San Diego, CA) (43.4)El Camino (Oceanside, CA) (99%), Torrey Pines (San Diego, CA) (91%), San Marcos (CA) (99%)
41Del Campo (Fair Oaks, CA)Sac-JoaquinCapital Valley89%7-010-044.8Antelope (CA) (31.9)Antelope (CA) (91%), Oakmont (Roseville, CA) (99%), Bella Vista (Fair Oaks, CA) (99%)
42Caruthers (CA)CentralWest Sequoia86%6-09-08.6Orosi (CA) (-7.2)Riverdale (CA) (95%), Orosi (CA) (93%), Fowler (CA) (98%)
43Woodside Priory (Portola Valley, CA)Central CoastMission Trail (8 Man)84%7-09-026.1Pinewood (Los Altos Hills, CA) (18.4)Anzar (San Juan Bautista, CA) (99%), Pinewood (Los Altos Hills, CA) (85%)
44Bishop's (La Jolla, CA)San DiegoCoastal83%6-09-038.4Santa Fe Christian (Solana Beach, CA) (27.8)Santa Fe Christian (Solana Beach, CA) (84%), Classical Academy (Escondido, CA) (99%), La Jolla Country Day (La Jolla, CA) (99%)
45Quartz Hill (CA)SouthernGolden82%7-010-034.4Palmdale (CA) (22)Highland (Palmdale, CA) (99%), Palmdale (CA) (84%), Lancaster (CA) (99%)
46Strathmore (CA)CentralEast Sequoia80%7-010-09.9Granite Hills (Porterville, CA) (1.2)Corcoran (CA) (99%), Granite Hills (Porterville, CA) (82%), Lindsay (CA) (99%)
47Rancho Cotate (Rohnert Park, CA)North CoastNorth Bay80%6-09-042.2Cardinal Newman (Santa Rosa, CA) (36.6)Santa Rosa (CA) (99%), Carrillo [Maria] (Santa Rosa, CA) (99%), Cardinal Newman (Santa Rosa, CA) (81%)
48Crescenta Valley (La Crescenta, CA)SouthernPacific78%7-010-028.7Burbank (CA) (18)Burbank (CA) (88%), Glendale (CA) (99%), Arcadia (CA) (89%)
49Carlmont (Belmont, CA)Central CoastPeninsula - Lake73%6-010-012.7Jefferson (Daly City, CA) (4.5)Capuchino (San Bruno, CA) (94%), Jefferson (Daly City, CA) (85%), Sequoia (Redwood City, CA) (92%), Mills (Millbrae, CA) (99%)
50Central Catholic (Modesto, CA)Sac-JoaquinValley Oak65%6-09-049.9Oakdale (CA) (45.9)Lathrop (CA) (99%), Kimball [John C.] (Tracy, CA) (99%), Oakdale (CA) (66%)
51Downey [Thomas] (Modesto, CA)Sac-JoaquinModesto Metro64%8-010-031.3Gregori [Joseph A.] (Modesto, CA) (31.2)Modesto (CA) (88%), Gregori [Joseph A.] (Modesto, CA) (73%)
52Durham (CA)NorthernMid-Valley56%6-09-021.6East Nicolaus (Nicolaus, CA) (16.3)Trinity (Weaverville, CA) (99%), Williams (CA) (99%), East Nicolaus (Nicolaus, CA) (58%)
53Bishop Diego [Garcia] (Santa Barbara, CA)SouthernTri-Valley55%7-010-039.4Grace Brethren (Simi Valley, CA) (38)Santa Paula (CA) (99%), Nordhoff (Ojai, CA) (99%), Grace Brethren (Simi Valley, CA) (56%)
54Highland (Bakersfield, CA)CentralSoutheast Yosemite49%6-08-18.1North (Bakersfield, CA) (2.8)South (Bakersfield, CA) (86%), Mira Monte (Bakersfield, CA) (99%), North (Bakersfield, CA) (58%)
55Aragon (San Mateo, CA)Central CoastPeninsula - Bay48%6-09-133.1Half Moon Bay (CA) (30)Burlingame (CA) (95%), Half Moon Bay (CA) (71%), Hillsdale (San Mateo, CA) (83%), Menlo-Atherton (Atherton, CA) (86%)
56St. Patrick-St. Vincent (Vallejo, CA)North CoastTri-County - Rock47%6-08-119.3El Cerrito (CA) (16.9)St. Mary's (Albany, CA) (95%), El Cerrito (CA) (51%), Swett [John] (Crockett, CA) (99%)
57Yucaipa (CA)SouthernCitrus Belt45%7-09-144.8Cajon (San Bernardino, CA) (46)Cajon (San Bernardino, CA) (47%), Citrus Valley (Redlands, CA) (97%), Miller [A. B.] (Fontana, CA) (99%)
58Villanova Prep (Ojai, CA)SouthernMt. Pinos (8 Man)40%7-08-148.8Orcutt Academy (Orcutt, CA) (52.5)Thacher (Ojai, CA) (99%), Orcutt Academy (Orcutt, CA) (40%)
59East Nicolaus (Nicolaus, CA)NorthernMid-Valley38%7-09-116.3Durham (CA) (21.6)Hamilton (Hamilton City, CA) (97%), Trinity (Weaverville, CA) (92%), Durham (CA) (42%)
60Upland Christian (Rancho Cucamonga, CA)Southern8-Man Freelance (8 Man)30%7-08-132.6Cate (Carpinteria, CA) (35.6)Cate (Carpinteria, CA) (30%), Lone Pine (CA) (99%)
61St. Francis (La Canada, CA)SouthernAngelus29%7-09-141.4Cathedral (Los Angeles, CA) (48.3)Salesian (Los Angeles, CA) (99%), Harvard-Westlake (Studio City, CA) (93%), Cathedral (Los Angeles, CA) (32%)
62Gregori [Joseph A.] (Modesto, CA)Sac-JoaquinModesto Metro25%7-09-131.2Downey [Thomas] (Modesto, CA) (31.3)Davis [Grace] (Modesto, CA) (99%), Modesto (CA) (92%), Downey [Thomas] (Modesto, CA) (27%)
63Acalanes (Lafayette, CA)North CoastDiablo - Foothill20%6-08-135.4Clayton Valley (Concord, CA) (40.3)Clayton Valley (Concord, CA) (32%), Campolindo (Moraga, CA) (73%), Miramonte (Orinda, CA) (86%)
64Granite Hills (Porterville, CA)CentralEast Sequoia18%7-09-11.2Strathmore (CA) (9.9)Sierra Pacific (Hanford, CA) (99%), Strathmore (CA) (18%), Woodlake (CA) (99%)
65Hillsdale (San Mateo, CA)Central CoastPeninsula - Ocean13%6-09-122.1Aragon (San Mateo, CA) (33.1)South San Francisco (CA) (99%), Menlo (Atherton, CA) (80%), Aragon (San Mateo, CA) (17%), King's Academy (Sunnyvale, CA) (99%)
66San Ramon Valley (Danville, CA)North CoastEast Bay12%7-09-154.7De La Salle (Concord, CA) (66.9)Dublin (CA) (99%), Monte Vista (Danville, CA) (99%), De La Salle (Concord, CA) (12%)
67Central Valley Christian (Visalia, CA)CentralCentral Sequoia11%7-09-123.1Dinuba (CA) (32.1)Exeter (CA) (99%), Dinuba (CA) (12%), Immanuel (Reedley, CA) (99%)
68Los Banos (CA)Sac-JoaquinWestern11%7-09-115Patterson (CA) (25.8)Patterson (CA) (13%), Livingston (CA) (99%), Pacheco (Los Banos, CA) (86%)
69Half Moon Bay (CA)Central CoastPeninsula - Bay10%6-09-130Aragon (San Mateo, CA) (33.1)Menlo-Atherton (Atherton, CA) (85%), Aragon (San Mateo, CA) (29%), Terra Nova (Pacifica, CA) (42%), Sacred Heart Prep (Atherton, CA) (98%)
70San Clemente (CA)SouthernSouth Coast8%7-09-161.9Mission Viejo (CA) (73)San Juan Hills (San Juan Capistrano, CA) (96%), Trabuco Hills (Mission Viejo, CA) (99%), Mission Viejo (CA) (8%)
71Tulare Western (Tulare, CA)CentralEast Yosemite7%7-09-139.9Tulare Union (Tulare, CA) (53.8)Mission Oak (Tulare, CA) (99%), Monache (Porterville, CA) (99%), Tulare Union (Tulare, CA) (8%)
72Tustin (CA)SouthernEmpire7%7-08-228.8Pacifica (Garden Grove, CA) (35.5)Valencia (Placentia, CA) (83%), Pacifica (Garden Grove, CA) (33%), Cypress (CA) (25%)
73Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills, CA)Sac-JoaquinSierra Foothill6%7-09-153.2Folsom (CA) (70.7)Del Oro (Loomis, CA) (94%), Nevada Union (Grass Valley, CA) (99%), Folsom (CA) (7%)
74Big Valley Christian (Modesto, CA)Sac-JoaquinCentral California AA6%7-09-1-26.3Stone Ridge Christian (Merced, CA) (-16.4)Brookside Christian (Stockton, CA) (42%), Riverbank (CA) (99%), Stone Ridge Christian (Merced, CA) (13%)
75Antelope (CA)Sac-JoaquinCapital Valley5%7-09-131.9Del Campo (Fair Oaks, CA) (44.8)Del Campo (Fair Oaks, CA) (9%), Bella Vista (Fair Oaks, CA) (99%), Whitney (Rocklin, CA) (55%)
76JSerra (San Juan Capistrano, CA)SouthernTrinity2%7-08-273.6Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA) (91.4)Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA) (6%), Santa Margarita (Rancho Santa Margarita, CA) (50%), St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA) (52%)
77Santa Ynez (CA)SouthernLos Padres1%7-08-227.7Lompoc (CA) (44.6)Lompoc (CA) (4%), Pioneer Valley (Santa Maria, CA) (99%), St. Joseph (Santa Maria, CA) (32%)
78Heritage Christian (Northridge, CA)SouthernOlympic1%7-08-10.5Valley Christian (Cerritos, CA) (26.9)Maranatha (Pasadena, CA) (51%), Valley Christian (Cerritos, CA) (1%)
79Arlington (Riverside, CA)SouthernInland Valley1%7-08-212.9Rancho Verde (Moreno Valley, CA) (37.4)Rancho Verde (Moreno Valley, CA) (1%), Canyon Springs (Moreno Valley, CA) (88%), Valley View (Moreno Valley, CA) (14%)
80Trinity (Weaverville, CA)NorthernMid-Valley1%6-07-22.9Durham (CA) (21.6)Durham (CA) (1%), East Nicolaus (Nicolaus, CA) (8%), Esparto (CA) (99%)