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RUNNING-THE-TABLE



CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (54%), 2 (58%), 3 (62%), 4 (68%), 5 (74%), 6 (80%), 7 (82%), 8 (84%), 9 (85%), 10 (86%), 11 (87%), 12 (88%), 13 (89%), 14 (90%), 15 (91%), 16 (92%), 17 (93%), 18 (94%), 19 (95%), 20 (96%), 21 (97%), 22 (98%), 23 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores.  They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart.  Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANKSCHOOLSECTIONLEAGUECHANCERECORDPROJECTED RECORDRATINGHIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENTREMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1Burbank [Luther] (Sacramento, CA)Sac-JoaquinMetropolitan100%10-010-035.2nonenone
2Avalon (CA)SouthernCoastal (8 Man)100%9-09-032.4nonenone
3Carter [Wilmer Amina] (Rialto, CA)SouthernSan Andreas100%10-010-035.4nonenone
4Serrano (Phelan, CA)SouthernMojave River100%10-010-040.8nonenone
5Palmdale (CA)SouthernGolden100%10-010-042nonenone
6Olympian (Chula Vista, CA)San DiegoMetro - Mesa100%10-010-044.1nonenone
7Citrus Hill (Perris, CA)SouthernMountain Pass100%10-010-049.9nonenone
8Woodside Priory (Portola Valley, CA)Central CoastMission Trail (8 Man)100%7-07-09.8nonenone
9Wasco (CA)CentralSouth Sequoia100%10-010-039nonenone
10Lompoc (CA)SouthernLos Padres100%10-010-048.7nonenone
11Mendocino (CA)North CoastNorth Central III (8 Man)100%8-08-025.4nonenone
12Redding Christian (Palo Cedro, CA)NorthernCalifornia - North (8 Man)100%9-09-032.2nonenone
13Mission Viejo (CA)SouthernSouth Coast100%10-010-068.7nonenone
14Bishop Diego [Garcia] (Santa Barbara, CA)SouthernTri-Valley100%10-010-029.3nonenone
15Ripon (CA)Sac-JoaquinTrans Valley100%10-010-034.2nonenone
16Seaside (CA)Central CoastMonterey Bay - Pacific100%10-010-018.2nonenone
17Argonaut (Jackson, CA)Sac-JoaquinMother Lode100%9-09-028.6nonenone
18Tustin (CA)SouthernEmpire100%10-010-051.7nonenone
19Placer (Auburn, CA)Sac-JoaquinPioneer Valley100%10-010-040.8nonenone
20Analy (Sebastopol, CA)North CoastSonoma County100%10-010-029.6nonenone
21De La Salle (Concord, CA)North CoastFreelance100%10-010-073.3nonenone
22Folsom (CA)Sac-JoaquinDelta River100%10-010-056.9nonenone
23Helix (La Mesa, CA)San DiegoGrossmont - Hills100%9-09-053nonenone
24Franklin (Elk Grove, CA)Sac-JoaquinDelta Valley100%10-010-048.8nonenone
25Rancho Cotate (Rohnert Park, CA)North CoastNorth Bay100%10-010-033.8nonenone
26Oak Grove (San Jose, CA)Central CoastMount Hamilton100%10-010-032.8nonenone
27La Salle (Pasadena, CA)SouthernDel Rey100%10-010-016.7nonenone
28Narbonne [Nathaniel] (Harbor City, CA)Los AngelesMarine100%10-010-068.2nonenone
29Upland (CA)SouthernBaseline100%10-010-053.7nonenone
30Army-Navy (Carlsbad, CA)San DiegoPacific100%10-010-0-9.3nonenone
31Sutter (CA)NorthernButte View100%10-010-036.7nonenone
32Vista Murrieta (Murrieta, CA)SouthernSouthwestern100%10-010-071.5nonenone
33Ontario Christian (Ontario, CA)SouthernAmbassador100%10-010-021.4nonenone
34Pierce (Arbuckle, CA)NorthernSacramento Valley100%10-010-0-0.4nonenone
35El Cerrito (CA)North CoastTri-County - Rock100%10-010-038.3nonenone